OpenAI and others are trying to develop one. AGI has been defined as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable tasks.
1,000
3.00@MoritzBrodel lol no worries! When do you think I should set the target for? I only did 10 years because of the options :)
@cerberus no 2034 does make sense, I just thought you could cash out again like you can in yes/no markets, but I guess you generally can't? I suppose I don't mind holding for 10 years given that I bought that option at 3% and it's almost a sure thing (>90% in my mind).
@MoritzBrodel I’m not 100% sure how it works, I think you get paid out when this resolves. So either a) we’ll see an AGI within 10 years and it resolves, or b) 10 years lapses and it’s a NO, worst case is 10 years, best case is unknown