I rode in a self driving car over the weekend and was very impressed with its performance. Although it still has limited operating hours, I think that driverless cars have a very bright future ahead of them. Resolves YES if any city in any country bans manually driven cars on at least one public road/lane in 2030, and only allows driverless cars.
Also resolves YES if a city builds a new road/lane specifically for self driving cars.
For occasional maintenance/other incidental issues such as a dangerous malfunction, maintanance vehicles and ambulances can still be driven on these roads, but regular citizens should not be allowed to drive manual cars on these roads. On the majority of days in a year, manually driven cars should not be on the road.
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3.00@MartinModrak The bus lane case IMHO affects the probability substantially - many cities allow taxis in bus lanes, so if they allow self-driving taxis, the market as stated would resolve yes (on the assumption that licensed taxi drivers are not "regular citizens")
@MartinModrak Fixed description to clarify first question
Bus lanes only count if all the taxis/buses are driverless. The exception is only for incidental maintenance; on most days of the year, all vehicles should be driverless