Will US unemployment be 20% or more before 2030?
Will US unemployment be 20% or more before 2030?
25
1kṀ14652030
13%
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"unemployment" refers to the monthly unemployment rate published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The highest ever recorded monthly US unemployment rate was in April 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 14.7%. During the Great Depression, the annual US unemployment rate (monthly was is not available) exceeded 20% for four years in 1932, 1933, 1934, and 1935 (BLS).
See data from BLS or St Louis Fed below:
Will the United States have an unemployment rate of 20% or more in any month before the end of this decade?
See also:
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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