Will the Conservatives win at least 40% of the vote in Canada's next federal election?
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2025
80%
chance

Canada's parliament must have an election on or before 20 October 2025. The Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre currently poll above Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party, approaching 40% as of the time this question was written.

Will the Conservative Party win 40% of the vote, or more, in the next Canadian federal election?

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You mean the popular vote? Not how many seats they win?

@Tumbles Correct!