Will the Conservatives win at least 40% of the vote in Canada's next federal election?
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Canada's parliament must have an election on or before 20 October 2025. The Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre currently poll above Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party, approaching 40% as of the time this question was written.

Will the Conservative Party win 40% of the vote, or more, in the next Canadian federal election?

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@Seanny123 there's a part of me believes the polls are underestimating the Conservative movement, but I think the shift towards the Liberals is real and might be widespread? Obviously not confident enough to throw down a huge amount of mana.

You mean the popular vote? Not how many seats they win?

@Tumbles Correct!

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