Every five years, the United Nations Population Division publishes datasets estimating international migrant numbers.
In 2010, India surpassed Mexico in its emigrant population, extending its lead in 2015 and 2020.
Will India continue to be the country from which the most people have migrated in 2025, according to UN data?
The UN data for emigration can be downloaded from their webpage, see [Total, origin] under the header Data. See Our World In Data for the data in a user-friendly form.
1,000People are also trading
Hi folks. Been waiting around on this one hoping that the UN would publish new data for 2025. Currently their data is only up-to-date for 2024. Since they normally do intervals ending e.g. 2010, 2015, 2020, I'd definitely prefer to get 2025 data and expect it will eventually come out. After some email correspondence, I understand that the UN Population Division's plan is to publish data for 2025 possibly as late as early 2027. They seem to be not publishing Jan-Feb this year (2026) because they intend to update their entire process to populate data for every year (2024, 2025, 2026, and ongoingly).
Anyway, what that means for this market is we can either:
(A) resolve to 2024 data, or
(B) wait for 2025 data, possibly released in 2027
The downsides of waiting a whole year is (i) that's a long time to wait, (ii) it probably won't change the outcome, and (iii) it's entirely possible the UN could delay further or change their plans here.
Since I'd be very surprised if the UN never published data for 2025, and there is meaningful chances that this question could resolve differently by waiting, I'm leaning right now to committing to the following idea: Allow the market to continue into early 2027, and check back in with the UN and see if they are expecting to release 2025 data. If for whatever reason prospects of that are looking quite unlikely, then I'll resolve to 2024 data whenever it seems like that's the case (e.g. mid 2027),
Happy to hear other thoughts though on this. Will keep the question closed for a week and if generally people think this approach is fine I'll extend the question and proceed with this plan.
@cash Please note I'll probably do the same thing for both this question and this other question where the same issue applies: https://manifold.markets/cash/which-country-will-have-the-largest
@cash based on the chart, the question is about total emigration numbers from 2021-2025 (inclusive), right? Not just the year 2025.