This market predicts whether Indian nationals will become the second largest foreign nationality group in Japan by 2050, behind only Chinese nationals.

As of December 2024, Indians were not in the top 5 foreign nationalities in Japan. The current ranking is:

1. Chinese (873,286)

2. Vietnamese (634,361)

3. South Korean (409,238)

4. Filipino (approximately 200,000+)

5. Brazilian (approximately 180,000+)

As of December 2024, there were 53,974 Indian nationals living in Japan. However, several factors could drive significant growth in the Indian population in Japan:

1. Japan's population is projected to decline to around 100 million by 2050, creating a need for foreign workers

2. A UN study found Japan would need net immigration of 17 million by 2050 to maintain its worker-to-retiree ratio

3. The August 2025 Japan-India Action Plan targets 50,000 skilled Indian workers over five years

4. India's large, young, English-speaking workforce makes it an attractive source of immigrants for Japan

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to YES if official statistics from Japan's Immigration Services Agency or Ministry of Justice show that Indian nationals have become the second largest foreign nationality group in Japan by December 31, 2050. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Resolution source: https://www.isa.go.jp/en/publications/materials/index.html