Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before 2030?
Same question except:
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3.00I would dispute most of this. Kinmen and Matsu have significant amount of military value because they would allow shorter-range military actions against Chinese ships on the other side of the strait. If you don't see what I mean, an example: would you rather load troop ships in Xiamen harbour with or without artillery shells from Kinmen raining down?
We have no idea what Beijing's preference is, except that we can note that so far it hasn't attacked. I'm not aware of any specific statements by officials to the effect of saying Kinmen and Matsu are less likely to be attacked. Many people believe that they could be invaded entirely separately to any attempt to seize Taiwan's main island, and many people do not.
You are right about many, even most, dark greens I think, but not all obviously. I'm sure some would like to see the islands given a referendum so they can choose 😉