An "original work" is defined as either wholly original or derivative of a non-famous cultural product in another medium (e.g. an obscure novel turned into a film). Sequels, films in a cinematic universe (e.g. MCU), films based on a non-book famous cultural product (e.g. Barbie), do not count as an original work.
Films about a person or group are original if they do not rely on a previous work about that person. So Oppenheimer does not count (it is based on American Prometheus), whereas Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) counts as original, as it is about a famous person but originally written.
This question resolves by checking the films that makeup the top 10 grossing films in the US in 2023 on Box Office Mojo using calendar grosses.
As of the time of writing this question, one film, Sound of Freedom, appears to qualify as original and is in the top 10 highest grossing films of the year thus far.
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As far as I can tell, the only qualifying movies in top 30 are Sound of Freedom at 10th place and Elemental at 16th place. The former should be overtaken by the Taylor Swift in a week or two, based on current trends. (E: Might not, actually. Updating up slightly) Barring an unexpected smash hit during December, this seems unlikely to resolve YES.
@sbares December's smash hit could easily be Miyazaki's The Boy and the Heron, which already has collected $81 million overseas including breaking the opening record in Japan. It would need around $200 million over 3-4 weeks to break into the top 10 in the U.S., which is unlikely, but this market sitting at 10% is way too low especially considering late December is the annual peak of theater attendance
@such I think 10% is quite reasonable that's why I spent a considerable amount of M$ getting it to that level. Looking at the upcoming releases, there aren't really any candidates likely to produce hundreds of millions in revenue. This doesn't rule out the possibility of something unexpectedly blowing up at the box office (hence 10% rather than 1% - it would be unexpected but not shocking), but The Boy and the Heron is quite unlikely to be that something. Not only would it have to be by far the highest grossing anime movie ever (in the US), its revenue in the US would have to significantly surpass its JP revenue, something I'm pretty sure has never even been close to happening before for an anime movie.
@BryantDurrell I was thinking about this question the other day when I saw it rise. On balance, I'm leaning to classifying concert films as non-original. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tours is composed of/derivative of a preceding famous cultural product (The Eras Tours), both temporally (the movie came out after the tours started), but it seems also intentionally (the tours didn't happen to cause the movie, the movie was made as something to support the tours, or something extra).
Unless there's some highly anticipated original film that I'm not aware of, chances are that The Marvels will be somewhere in the top 10, knocking the only original film at the moment, Sound of Freedom, down to at least #11. Hopefully we're not thinking of Elemental as existing in a Pixar Cinematic Universe, but it's still only at number 15.