Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?
Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?
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42%
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Gallup polls Americans on whether they identify as LGBT. Since polling began, Americans' self-identification as LGBT has risen from 3.5% in 2012 to 7.2% in 2022.
In the last three years, polling results were published in articles on Gallup's website the February after the year in-question (2020, 2021, 2022).
Polling temporarily lapsed in 2018 and 2019. If Gallup does not publish anything on this question for all of the next 3 years, this question resolves N/A. So long as at least 1 of the next 3 years has directly comparable data, this question resolves YES if any of Gallup's polling shows that 10% or more of Americans identify as LGBT.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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