Who will be Prime Minister of Canada on 1 Jan 2028?
Who will be Prime Minister of Canada on 1 Jan 2028?
10
100Ṁ2522028
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
82%
Mark Carney
12%
Pierre Poilievre
6%
This question resolves YES to the above-named individual who is Canadian Prime Minister at 9am the morning of the 1st of January 2028 and NO to all other options listed above at that time.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?
Who will be Prime Minister of Canada on 1 Jan 2026?
Who will be Prime Minister of Canada after Mark Carney?
Who will be Prime Minister of Canada on 1 Jan 2029?
Who will be Prime Minister of Canada on 1 Jan 2027?
Who will be Prime Minister of Canada on 1 Jan 2030?
Who will be the Prime Minister of Canada at some point in their life?
Will Justin Trudeau be Canada's Prime Minister on October 10, 2026?
1% chance
Who will be President of the United States on 1 Jan 2028?
[Metaculus] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?
1% chance