How many US pro-Palestine/anti-Israel demonstrations will there be in any week in May 2024?
Mini
27
3.9k
Jun 29
56%
250+
16%
300+
7%
350+
6%
400+
5%
450+
3%
500+
2%
550+
Resolved
YES
50+
Resolved
YES
100+
Resolved
YES
150+
Resolved
YES
200+

This question will use data published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which runs the United States Crisis Monitor.


The ACLED's Crisis Monitor categorizes demonstrations by driver and publishes counts of demonstration events for each week. One driver the ACLED tracks is "pro-Palestine/anti-Israel", which came in at 173 demonstrations in April 21-28, the highest number since tracking began in October 2023.

This question resolves YES to each above-listed threshold that is met or exceeded in-terms of the ACLED's pro-Palestine/anti-Israel demonstration counts for any week in May. Any threshold not met or exceeded in any week in May resolves NO after all counts are published.

"demonstration count" means the combined total of protests plus riots

"any week in May" means Sunday-Monday 7-day periods which start in the month of may, meaning the following weeks: May 5-11, May 12-18, May 19-25, May 26-Jun 1.

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@cash how are handling the last week of May with market closing?

Waiting until first week of June data comes in. At that point will resolve everything based on May data (which should then be fully stable).

So it's still closes tonight?

Ah good point. I've extended the deadline.

ACLED demonstration data for the first two weeks of May (5-11 and 12-18) are both now in, and I'm comfortable resolving to any numbers on the first data point since it appears to me to now be relatively final. Accordingly, there were 227 demonstrations (protests + riots) during the week of May 5-11. This means the 50+, 100+, 150+, and 200+ thresholds have all been met and should resolve YES.

I will leave the remaining thresholds open until ACLED has every week of May updated, plus one extra week into June, and then resolve NO to any thresholds that weren't met (and YES if any additional thresholds are met).

reposted

ACLED's pro-Palestine/anti-Israel demonstration number for the week of April 28th was 176, down from the previous week's all-time high of 220.

@cash Just noticed an error in the above post. I assumed that at that time I was looking at the full week of April 28th-May 4th, but it appears that the date range (April-April) removes some of the data from early May. So 168 protests and 8 riots, I am guessing, refers to just April 28-30. If one extends the range into May, the demonstration number for the April 28th-May 4th week actually went way higher, at 435 protests and 14 riots tagged as pro-Palestine/anti-Israel:

Data is also now out for the week of May 5-May 11 (as can be seen in the above picture), showing 180 protests and 4 riots. This means the 50+, 100+, and 150+ options should resolve YES. I'm going to opt to wait for another week of data to be published before resolving those options, however, so that I'm sure I'm resolving based on finalized data for that week.

reposted

ACLED's May 2 report includes a map that shows New York and California have the highest concentrations of protests, with New York also being the site of the most police interventions.

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