Manifold: Live! - Episode 2: What will be true about the episode
15
Ṁ1.4kṀ12kresolved Dec 10
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YESAt least one host will say that the Manifold market on Biden's nomination is underpriced (they think it should be higher).
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NOThe livestream will reach 50 viewers on twitch
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NOJoshua will mention @strutheo or a market created by them
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NOA host will ask the guest about their best/worst of all time trade
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NOSpeakers will find a disagreement, create a market about it, and place bets on opposing sides with over 1k mana wagered total
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NOThe hosts will agree that the Manifold markets on Biden's nomination are priced more accurately than real-money prediction sites.
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NOAt least three different 2024 presidential candidates will be mentioned.
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YESThere will be technical difficulties
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YESA speaker will swear
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YESA speaker will place a bet over 10,000M during the show
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YESA host will say the word "rationalussy".
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YEScrow/peacock shame will be mentioned
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YESThere is a surprise guest appearance
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YESA speaker will make a reference to market arbitrage
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YES@Mira will be mentioned
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YESThe phrase "The world’s premier podcast created for the purpose of discussing new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold" will be said
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YESIt will start on time (within 1 min of posted time)
Only relevant to episode 2, not future episodes. Will be updated with date and topic market when confirmed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@case They talked about it explicitly towards the end. Joshua went on a diatribe about how they expect the Biden nomination chances to quickly rise soon, and that it's clearly too low right now