I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley. This question resolves yes if+when I drop out, no if I finish my program (est. May 2029).

The main reason I would drop out is if something else seems clearly more impactful or interesting. Two things I could imagine fitting this description are working at an EA-aligned research org or doing more direct AI safety work.

The main reason I wouldn’t drop out is that I’m getting a comfy stipend and have a ton of research flexibility. I’m currently running surveys on probabilistic reasoning and forecasting human-AI interaction.

I personally estimate there’s about a 30% chance I drop out (up from 20% several months ago after remembering how much I hate meetings). I won’t bet in this market.

You can read more about me on my website: https://atcarterallen.com