Will replacement eyes be on the market by 2050?
1k
2049
57%
chance

There is an approved treatment in the US where one can have one or both eyes removed and replaced with devices that restore vision to the quality of that of an average 30 year old.

There are many people who think that AGI is around the corner and will solve all of our problems. Here is one real world problem that challenges that view.

Why is it hard? The solution will involve connecting to or replacing the optic nerve. Retinal ganglion cells will be removed and the solution will involve attaching to the brain side of their axons or innervating the post synaptic neurons directly. The solution will need to recreate the neuronal activity of healthy ganglion cells. Brain signals controlling saccades and accomodation will need to be received from the brain and interpreted correctly.

A separate question has been created that has no requirement of there being a market. https://manifold.markets/capybara/will-replacement-eyes-be-available?r=Y2FweWJhcmE

Edits: I edited the wording to be less proscriptive on how the solution could be achieved.

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What happens if replacement eyes are available, but they are free (e.g. because a marketless society exists, or because they can only be made by a super intellect who refuses to sell them, but distributes them in some other way).

I realize the word “market” has connotations of “available” that can be met without an actual market. My original intent was “widely available”, but I personally prefer when questions stick to their wording, so I will clarify as follows.


If the eyes are widely available for free, then is question resolves YES. This will be viewed as on the market for $0.

If there is exclusive distribution that doesn’t allow people to trade for access, this resolves No. This includes a benevolent utilitarian AI choosing an order to distribute to the general population–and this order not allowing people to make offers to skip the queue.

Edit: I created a second question that removes any mention of market.

bought Ṁ30 YES

What if it bypasses the optic nerve?

@RemNi Resloves NO if the output is not targeting the neurons which the retinal ganglion cells connect to. I will update the wording of the question slightly to allow for the optic nerve not needing to remain.

How does this resolve if the USA ceases to exist?

Do medical treatments that substantially change the eye without removing it also count? (Example: nanomachines which grow inside the eye and gradually convert the tissue into diamondoid machinery.)

@MaxHarms Keeping to the wording, if the US ceases to exist then this resolves NO.

A gradual replacement of the eye counts as long as there is the option for all parts to be replaced. The intent is to allow a wide variety of diseases to be treated. For example: resolves NO if the vitreous is not replaceable.

as far as humans are concerned, there won't *be* markets in 2050

Why would there not be markets?

@capybara because capitalism is finna leave humanity behind

@capybara we will get perfect utopia, but we won't be able to contribute to anything meaningful

@capybara or we'll all die

@jim Will there not be a market for land, or metals or compute?

@jim The end of capitalism and the year of the Linux desktop are inevitable and around the corner

@Enlil capitalism will never end. Just the relevance of humans to it.

@capybara no, there will not be

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