Resolution criteria

Resolves to month in which Don't Worry About the Vase articles can be written by AI with same level of depth, insight, and rigour as @ZviMowshowitz. A custom harness is allowed (I would like this to happen!). It must write full articles, and be judged by me, Zvi, or 51%+ Manifold poll if neither of the former are available to comment as being of consistently adequate replacement quality.

(I might flesh out "consistently adequate replacement quality" in the future and trade on this market once it is fleshed out. I'll also trade once at start to make probabilities make sense or place non-filling limit orders to exit).

Context
Zvi Mowshowitz writes Don't Worry About the Vase, one of the most-read Substacks about AI. He is known for his weekly AI roundups, which are often very long and link to hundreds of source. He writes long posts about new model releases, AI safety, AI policy, and other topics such as economics, game design, and prediction markets. However, with the increasing pace of AI progress, it is starting to become more difficult for Zvi to keep up. When will AI relieve Zvi of this burden?

• Update 2026-09-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve to the month in which either the creator or Zvi Mowshowitz judges the AI-written articles to be of consistently adequate replacement quality.

  • A positive judgment from only one of them is sufficient for resolution.