Will the US Congress authorize the issue of letters of marque and reprisal before 2050?
8
53
264
2050
28%
chance

This question resolves "Yes" if at any time before 2050, Congress passes a bill to authorize private citizens or corporations to sieze assets outside of the US from unfriendly powers. For the purposes of this question, we include virtual assets such as cryptocurrency in addition to the more traditional fare (boats).

Background: Article I, Section 8 of the US Constitution grants Congress the power to "grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal." Congress last exercised these powers in 1815, at the end of the War of 1812. However, numerous bills have been introduced in the past few years that would qualify, e.g.:

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It's worth noting that letters of marque are prohibited by customary international law and have been for over one century, in addition to not having been issued by the United States for over two centuries. Proposals to issue them have largely come from semi-literate members of congress seeking the attention of a conservative voter base.

@HarrisonNathan If it were possible, I would not have initialized this market at 50% odds :)

That said, the conventions to which you refer regard maritime law, and we explicitly also include the siezure of virtual assets, generally not covered by such laws.

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