Basic
247
แน€84k
resolved Nov 15
Resolved
YES

Get แน€600 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€2,534
2แน€1,704
3แน€1,145
4แน€444
5แน€427
Sort by:

APEC in November is in San Francisco.

predicted YES

@PC Odds of going to APEC should be lower than odds of visiting US since one is a subset of the other.

predicted YES

@KameronCarr Good point.

predicted YES

Lol, I paid 40% for this market

Trips to US:

Jun 2013

Sep 2015

Apr 2016

Apr 2017

4 visits in a bit over 10 years, so ~39% chance in given year, ignoring the ~2.5 years lost to covid.

Number of trips to any foreign country:

2012 0

2013 10

2014 18

2015 15

2016 15

2017 8

2018 13

2019 12

2020 1

2021 0

2022 5

2023 0

Some extensive general discussion here:

https://chinapower.csis.org/diplomatic-visits/

Overall, I would put the probability at least at 15-20%, so worth buying some YES.