Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2023?
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closes Dec 31
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MickBransfield avatar
Mick Bransfieldpredicts NO

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announces-taiwan-weapons-package-worth-up-345-million-2023-07-28/

US announces Taiwan weapons package worth up to $345 million
The United States unveiled a Taiwan weapons aid package worth up to $345 million, a move likely to anger China.
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ100 of YES

APEC in November is in San Francisco.

1 reply
PC avatar
PhilCpredicts YES

@BTE

MP avatar
MPpredicts YES

Lol, I paid 40% for this market

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnbought Ṁ20 of YES

Trips to US:

Jun 2013

Sep 2015

Apr 2016

Apr 2017

4 visits in a bit over 10 years, so ~39% chance in given year, ignoring the ~2.5 years lost to covid.

Number of trips to any foreign country:

2012 0

2013 10

2014 18

2015 15

2016 15

2017 8

2018 13

2019 12

2020 1

2021 0

2022 5

2023 0

Some extensive general discussion here:

https://chinapower.csis.org/diplomatic-visits/

Overall, I would put the probability at least at 15-20%, so worth buying some YES.