🏅 Top traders

Resolves YES, Xi has landed

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/xi-jinping-san-francisco-arrival/3371299/%3famp=1

@HenriThunberg @brp

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/31/joe-biden-xi-jinping-san-francisco-00124571

Biden will meet Xi Jinping in coming weeks, White House says

The encounter, on the sidelines of an economic summit in San Francisco, would be a pivotal moment in a key global relationship that has grown increasingly frosty.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/10/05/biden-xi-meeting-apec-summit/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announces-taiwan-weapons-package-worth-up-345-million-2023-07-28/

US announces Taiwan weapons package worth up to $345 million

The United States unveiled a Taiwan weapons aid package worth up to $345 million, a move likely to anger China.

APEC in November is in San Francisco.

@BTE

@PC Odds of going to APEC should be lower than odds of visiting US since one is a subset of the other.

@KameronCarr Good point.

Lol, I paid 40% for this market

Trips to US:

Jun 2013

Sep 2015

Apr 2016

Apr 2017

4 visits in a bit over 10 years, so ~39% chance in given year, ignoring the ~2.5 years lost to covid.

Number of trips to any foreign country:

2012 0

2013 10

2014 18

2015 15

2016 15

2017 8

2018 13

2019 12

2020 1

2021 0

2022 5

2023 0

Some extensive general discussion here:

https://chinapower.csis.org/diplomatic-visits/

Overall, I would put the probability at least at 15-20%, so worth buying some YES.