
Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2023?
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2.2kṀ84kresolved Nov 15
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Resolves YES, Xi has landed
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announces-taiwan-weapons-package-worth-up-345-million-2023-07-28/
@PC Odds of going to APEC should be lower than odds of visiting US since one is a subset of the other.
Trips to US:
Jun 2013
Sep 2015
Apr 2016
Apr 2017
4 visits in a bit over 10 years, so ~39% chance in given year, ignoring the ~2.5 years lost to covid.
Number of trips to any foreign country:
2012 0
2013 10
2014 18
2015 15
2016 15
2017 8
2018 13
2019 12
2020 1
2021 0
2022 5
2023 0
Some extensive general discussion here:
https://chinapower.csis.org/diplomatic-visits/
Overall, I would put the probability at least at 15-20%, so worth buying some YES.