Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on NCVS)
12
493
Dec 31
20%
chance

Resolves based on whole-year comparisons of National Crime Victimization Survey data (https://bjs.ojp.gov/programs/ncvs) between 2022 and 2023, for "violent crime excluding simple assault," which includes murder, nonnegligent manslaughter, rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. The rate of violent crime excluding simple assault was 2.91 per 1000 in 2021.

Will resolve as soon as I become aware that NCVS data for 2023 has been posted. Data for 2021 was published in October 2022.

Resolves N/A if NCVS data for 2023 does not become available in 2024, or if like-to-like comparison becomes impossible.

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