Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on NCVS)
Plus
13
Ṁ543Dec 31
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on whole-year comparisons of National Crime Victimization Survey data (https://bjs.ojp.gov/programs/ncvs) between 2022 and 2023, for "violent crime excluding simple assault," which includes murder, nonnegligent manslaughter, rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. The rate of violent crime excluding simple assault was 2.91 per 1000 in 2021.
Will resolve as soon as I become aware that NCVS data for 2023 has been posted. Data for 2021 was published in October 2022.
Resolves N/A if NCVS data for 2023 does not become available in 2024, or if like-to-like comparison becomes impossible.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Compared to 2023, will violent crime in the US decrease in 2024?
80% chance
Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on FBI UCR)
5% chance
Will there be more homicides in 2024 than in 2023?
38% chance
Will terrorism decline in the United States in 2023?
58% chance
Will violent crime go up in Washington DC in 2024?
15% chance
Will there be violence in the US after the 2024 presidential election?
83% chance
Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2030?
56% chance
Will research show that crime has increased by 2045 due to abortion restrictions passed in 2021-2022?
44% chance
Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2025?
61% chance
If the Democratic nominee wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?
71% chance