Detroit LVT: Will crime decrease by 10%? (2028)

Detroit is planning on an LVT project. It still has to pass a few legislative hurdles, but Mayor Duggan is pushing hard. You can read all about it here:

This market resolves N/A if the LVT project is not implemented by the expiration date.

This market is one of a series of markets based on the very confident predictions found in the Marginal Revolution comments section on the subject (mostly, but not always, about how it will fail). I'm turning each of these into a market. (Group link for all these markets)

Commenter Naveen K:

"If you tax blight, will you get less of it?" is an intriguing way of putting it.

Conservatives have long argued (rightly) that the way to revive cities like Detroit and Baltimore is to first tackle crime which will in turn spur development. Maybe taxing land will artificially spur developments which will then increase the pressure on the need for policing and tackling crime. Let's see what happens.

Two years after the plan is implemented, if per capita crime (both violent crime and property crime) has clearly decreased by 10% or more compared to the previous two years, this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

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