In ignorance, I created the following market:
@BrendanFinan commented that this market may be in violation of the Onion Futures Act. The law states
"No contract for the sale of motion picture box office receipts (or any index, measure, value, or data related to such receipts) or onions for future delivery shall be made on or subject to the rules of any board of trade in the United States."
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/7/13-1
It seems that the "index, measure, value, or data" clause is limited to box office receipts ("related to such receipts"), and the Manifold market will not result in any onions being delivered in the future, so we're in the clear. However, I am unaware of any relevant case law.
Convince me in the comments that there is case law which would make the Manifold Market a liability, and I will resolve the other market to N/A and this market to YES.
If I am unconvinced by May 1, this market resolves NO.
I will not trade in this market, but I will add liquidity equal to my market creator profit on the onion market.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ20 | |
| 2 | Ṁ18 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
USDA tracks the price of onions (see https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/agpr0222.pdf), which shows that the "index, measure" clause definitely does not apply to onions. Removing that clause, the law reads "No contract for the sale of onions for future delivery shall be made", which a Manifold market definitely is not.
Separately, a security is only de facto in violation of law if CFTC or SEC comes after you for it, which I'm pretty sure they won't.