Will Starship booster B7's next potentially flightworthy firing test be an actual flight test?
Mini
7
13k
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if the next test firing of SpaceX's Starship booster B7 is a flight test, NO if it is a static fire test. Other types of test firing do not resolve the question.

This market is not about independent engine tests, but about full-vehicle, full upper-stage, or full-booster tests. Either booster or the ship itself can potentially fly through the atmosphere independently; the fire test must be on a full-scale assembly configured for flight, modulo what standard changes might be made for a static fire test. A failed test is still a test. In the case of test failure the intent of the test will be used to resolve the market.

If the B7 booster is scrapped before testing, this market resolves N/A.

If another starship booster is involved in successful orbital flight, then I'm going to probably going to lose interest in following B7, and resolve this market N/A.

If the B7 booster is has not been tested at close, the close date will be extended by one year until either B7 has been tested, B7 is scrap, or a Starship booster has been involved in a successful orbital flight.

Feb 16, 10:34am: Will Starship booster S24's next potentially flightworthy firing test be an actual flight test? → Will Starship booster B7's next potentially flightworthy firing test be an actual flight test?

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Resolves Yes

predicted NO

How will this market resolve if B7 is scrapped and never fired again?

predicted YES

https://spacenews.com/spacex-proceeding-with-starship-orbital-launch-attempt-after-static-fire/

Henry, though, suggested that SpaceX was not planning another such test before an orbital launch attempt.

predicted YES

If they fire the engines with the intent to fly (it will be streamed, so it will be clear) but abort in the first few seconds without liftoff, this still resolves "yes" as a flight test, right?

@NamesAreHard Yup. Nothing about the test being successful.

predicted YES

If B7 is scrapped before they try to fire it again, I guess this market resolves N/A?

@Mqrius Seems fair.

S24 is not a booster, it's a ship (second stage). What do you mean by Starship booster S24? Did you mean booster B7, the booster that did the 31 engine test recently?

@Mqrius Thank you. Changed to B7.