Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on August 1, 2023?
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76
αΉ€1.1K
resolved Aug 2
Resolved
NO

To resolve with a load of bbc.com/news/health.

In order to maintain trust in market resolution, I will not trade in this market.

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"be the top news item"

There could be several different ones during 1 August. How are we sure we haven't missed one? Or is it the top story at time claim closes?

@ChristopherRandles When the market closes, I will visit bbc.com/news/health. The top story at that time, as displayed to my device, will be the top story for resolution purposes. In order to justify the resolution, I will make a snapshot with archive.is and post it here. If something happens and I cannot resolve when the market closes, then I will check the internet archive / wayback machine to resolve. If the wayback machine has more than one snapshot for Aug 1, then I will select a single sample for its proximity to market close time. If there are two samples equidistant in time from the market close time which result in conflicting resolutions, I will resolve probabilistically at 50%.

predicted NO

What are the definitions of infectious and disease here? The current story is about tick bites causing meat allergy. An allergy is a chronic disease and it has been passed on by infection from a tick?

Or do you only mean something with human-human transmission?

@rmnz Good question. Got to love how the world will throw up edge cases. According to the CDC, "alpha-gal syndrome is not caused by an infection" (https://www.cdc.gov/ticks/alpha-gal/index.html), so I would resolve that particular example to NO (although you may change my mind with better sources).

@rmnz Via Mayo Clinic, "Infectious diseases are disorders caused by organisms β€” such as bacteria, viruses, fungi or parasites. ... some organisms may cause disease. ... Some infectious diseases can be passed from person to person. Some are transmitted by insects or other animals. And you may get others by consuming contaminated food or water or being exposed to organisms in the environment." https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/infectious-diseases/symptoms-causes/syc-20351173

@brp If the disease in question has human-human transmission, I will definitely resolve YES. If it doesn't affect humans, definitely NO. If animal-human, I will consider it in the spirit of the original post and the above definition.

predicted NO

@brp Under that mayo clinic definition would it resolve yes?

…disorders caused by organisms…

…Some are transmitted by insects or other animals…

bought αΉ€100 of NO

@rmnz An allergy is not an infectious disease. That’s not the common understanding of the terms β€˜infectious disease’.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon It’s not what I’d call a common understanding, but it’s a disease caused by an infection (based on the mayo clinic, but not from the CDC above), so I wanted to clarify. Because if it would be considered then this market is completely mispriced.

predicted NO

ok nvm

predicted NO

@NicoDelon from quotes of NIAID scientists

"We often think of ticks as carriers of infectious diseases, such as Lyme disease, but the research strongly suggests that bites from this particular species of tick can lead to this unusual allergy"


https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/niaid-scientists-link-cases-unexplained-anaphylaxis-red-meat-allergy

predicted NO

@jgyou Lyme is caused by a bacterium but not AGS

@lokling I will admit that when I created this market, livestock infectious diseases did not occur to me. In order to maintain the spirit of this market ("infectious disease" usually referring to diseases of humans) a livestock-only disease will resolve NO. A livestock disease with suspected or concerns about transmission to humans will resolve YES. So in the case of avian influenza the market will resolve YES, given the recently demonstrated transmission to mammals. Other livestock diseases will probably resolve NO.

predicted YES

@brp agree - this was my interpretation of your question as well. My bet on yes is based on the chance this avian flue develops into to a headline concerning human transmission