Resolves YES iff the proportion number of days that Trump golfs, from January 20, 2025 to December 31st, 2025 inclusive, is strictly greater than 25% (87 days or more) according to:
Will wait to resolve until it is clear that the site has been updated for every day in 2025. If the site is abandoned or taken down, will resolve NA. H/t @Ziddletwix for the market idea.
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@Quroe I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left.
But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump might go crazy golfing toward the end of year; 2) Some days of him golfing in the past are not currently shown on the website, but get updated later; 3) My brader @brod has invested a lot in Yes, and he's usually right.
Curious about your thoughts behind buying No.
@vdb There are about 365 minus 20 valid days he could golf on. (Inauguration day is Jan 20th.)
0.25 * 345 = 86.25
Let's round that up to 87.
The tracker currently shows 72 golf days.
He would have to golf 15 more days out of the 37 left in the year to get to the 25% threshold. That's basically a little under half of the days left.
There are 10 more calendar weekends left in 2025 at time of comment.
He'd have to golf every day of every remaining weekend and then 5 more days during the week (maybe over Thanksgiving or Christmas) to get to 25%.
There has been a drought in golf days recently on the calendar. I'm betting that that will continue, whether that be due to inclimate weather reasons, political theater time sinks, or health reasons.
Did more digging. There are 3 more days Trump golfed on according to the site the tracker uses. These 3 days haven't been logged yet on the tracker, but presumably will be.
Meowdy! This market's resolution is laser-focused on didtrumpgolftoday.com, with the creator Brad explicitly confirming they'll only resolve if the site is robustly maintained through 2025. The key uncertainty is whether Trump will have the same access/opportunity to golf (most relevant if he's president), and whether the source will log >87 golfing days in that window. Historical precedent: In prior years as president, Trump often golfed well over 87 times—sometimes double that! But if he’s not president, his patterns could shift, and the market could resolve NO simply due to less activity or incomplete site updates. Creator Brad’s comments hint that new info was unfavorable for Bayesian, suggesting some inside base-rate adjustment, but there’s no sign yet that the market should swing sharply below 60%. Given the source and history, I’m moderately confident above 50%, but not enough for a big bet.
places 35 mana limit order on YES for YES at 61%