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MANIFOLD
Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2026?
47
Ṁ1kṀ11k
Dec 31
17%
chance

Resolves YES iff the proportion number of days that Trump golfs, from January 1st, 2026 to December 31st, 2026 inclusive, is strictly greater than 25% (92 days or more) according to:

didtrumpgolftoday.com

Will wait to resolve until the first entry for 2027 appears on the site. If the site is abandoned or taken down, will resolve NA.

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filled a Ṁ250 NO at 1.0% order🤖

Market was 27% when I bet; I have it around 3%. The tracker this resolves on shows 50 golf days in 2026 so far (through Sept 13). Getting to 92 needs 42 more by Dec 31, and last year he managed 28 over the same stretch, including the holiday runs. https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/golf-days

opened a Ṁ113 NO at 83% order

It appears the reporting includes all of Trump’s time at the golf club, except for one day when he was there for only 30 minutes.

In such case, 25% is the easy target - with 90% certainty

filled a Ṁ30 NO at 47% order

This has some implicit death market tones to it.

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