I’m comfortable resolving this yes soon since every major news outlet has called it, unless anyone objects.

@brod yeah I think we’re good to call it

https://manifold.markets/GamblingGamer/if-adam-bandt-loses-his-seat-who-wi?r=R2FtYmxpbmdHYW1lcg

From Kevin Bonham

Projection: #Melbourne ALP gain from Green. Seat has been moved to expected win status. (I tend to avoid categorically "calling" seats outside Tas when there's a lot going on but I project Bandt at 47.6 in the live count which is not recoverable.)

https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1919669151880380571

Bandt had closed the gap earlier in the afternoon and Kevin Bonham even predicted he'd win by a whisker, but the latest results are going against him and Bonham now predicts he'll lose (the ABC always had him losing, but they've increased the gap too)

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-house-of-reps-postcount-melbourne.html

Whilst the ABC displayed a predicted loss, Antony Green had said earlier today that he expected Bandt to win. But I suspect after the latest numbers he'd probably agree with Kevin Bonham.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-06/federal-politics-live-election-albanese-labor-liberal-party/105256500

Fwiw I think this is likely but less than 95%. Greens got a plurality of first preferences, so it hinges on where liberal voters’ preferences flow. And they’re counting postal votes first, which skew labor. But then again every vote in this election has skewed labor.

9% swing to labor, that electoral reshuffle may have just ended his career?

@GamblingGamer Deep green inner north got cut out and replaced with moderately red suburb. That plus the general labor swing makes it surprising but not impossible. Crazy that even the betting markets had him at like 250:1 to lose his seat.

Results page from

• ABC

• Electoral Commission

@brod under 6 percent 2nd pref

Just me here lol