Bandt had closed the gap earlier in the afternoon and Kevin Bonham even predicted he'd win by a whisker, but the latest results are going against him and Bonham now predicts he'll lose (the ABC always had him losing, but they've increased the gap too)

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-house-of-reps-postcount-melbourne.html

Fwiw I think this is likely but less than 95%. Greens got a plurality of first preferences, so it hinges on where liberal voters’ preferences flow. And they’re counting postal votes first, which skew labor. But then again every vote in this election has skewed labor.

9% swing to labor, that electoral reshuffle may have just ended his career?

@GamblingGamer Deep green inner north got cut out and replaced with moderately red suburb. That plus the general labor swing makes it surprising but not impossible. Crazy that even the betting markets had him at like 250:1 to lose his seat.

Results page from

• ABC

• Electoral Commission

@brod under 6 percent 2nd pref

Just me here lol