https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/world/americas/kenya-haiti-police-deployment.html

Does a police force count as troops for resolution?

In Kenya, I don’t think police are part of the military, i.e. normal definition of “troops”.

For honest resolution, I think we’d have to see arrival of at least two members of a Kenyan military force, even if that’s just two generals arriving to provide logistics, leadership or coordination.

If the KDF flys police officers there, that would count as troops being in Haiti.

If the KDF sends a naval vessel that docks at a port in Haiti, then that counts.

Does Kenya have “State Troopers”? That would count.

I’m open to any counter arguments.

All recent news has been about Kenya sending a police force to Haiti. Your question and resolution is now not related to that event. I think all participant's understanding of the question was will Kenya end up sending a police force to Haiti or not.

this market precedes recent news

@AaronBreckenridge Kenya has Military Police, a branch of the military that helps maintain law and order, similar to French gendarmes or American national guard and military police combined.

However, the bill passed by Kenya (linked by @sarius ) authorizes sending National Police Services, which are just civilian police. Kenya would need a separate bill to send military police.

@m2 I have now bet based on @AaronBreckenridge's statment that police doesn't count. It is no longer all participants' understanding that a police force would not count, so your argument no longer applies.

@dph121 yea, poor word choices on my part when starting this market. My assumption was alway that the Kenyan troops (i.e military) would be deployed as peacekeepers. I don’t see much point in Kenya deploying civilian officers to go up against Haitian gangs, but I can understand the Haiti government not wanting soldiers again.

ehh, media coverage has still been referring to the mission as a mission sending troops to Haiti. Also iirc Kenya's KPS includes the GSU - which are a paramilitary force and fun fact were trained by Israel. How would this market resolve if they send GSU forces?

@sarius yes paramilitary forces are generally organized like a military, hence they are troops.

Kenya: Parliament approves deployment of police to Haiti

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/un-security-council-approves-deploying-a-kenya-led-force-to-haiti-to-fight-gangs

The description does not match the title in a way that seems likely to lead to controversy.

Sending a multinational force with the consent of the Haitian government is really not something most people are going to understand to be a Kenyan invasion

@JoshuaWilkes What Hatian government? I’ll change the title.

@AaronBreckenridge Good change

@JoshuaWilkes agreed. i bought NO before the title change and the probabilities of these two things are pretty wildly different

@calm The description has not changed since I started the market and it’s spelled out pretty clearly how it will resolve.