The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management estimates a 75% chance of a "large oil spill" spilling more than 1k barrels of oil for offshore oil development.
Now, it's not offshore, but in March 2023, Joe Biden approved a plan to drill for oil in the north of Alaska.
Will there be a "large" oil spill in Alaska spilling more than 1k barrels of oil before 2030?
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I don't think I would use this market as evidence, but I'm going to have a debate about Arctic resource extraction soon, see https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-i-win-my-next-debate-competiti
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