Will there be an oil spill in Alaska before 2030?
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7
23
Ṁ170
2029
79%
chance

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management estimates a 75% chance of a "large oil spill" spilling more than 1k barrels of oil for offshore oil development.

Now, it's not offshore, but in March 2023, Joe Biden approved a plan to drill for oil in the north of Alaska.

Will there be a "large" oil spill in Alaska spilling more than 1k barrels of oil before 2030?

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I don't think I would use this market as evidence, but I'm going to have a debate about Arctic resource extraction soon, see https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-i-win-my-next-debate-competiti

Will I win my next debate competition?
40% chance. It's online, and the resolution is "The benefits of resource extraction in the Arctic Circle outweigh the harms" Why I might win: I'm a native English speaker, and so is my debating partner, and the competition's in China I think I am a generally good debator Why I may not win: Base rate is low I have some doubts on my Pro case Our debate club meets up twice a week, our debate coach comes once a week. You can ask me for my blocks. Trying to rig this to resolve YES by giving me help is encouraged. I reserve the right to buy YES shares on this market, until the start of the finals debate.

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