Political commentators have recently speculated that the combination of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the growth of electric vehicles will mean a decline of oil prices into the future. Will that happen?

To quantify this, will the price of oil, defined by WTI crude prices (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti) reach $100/barrel before January 1, 2030?

For one example discussion, see https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-reverse-opec-maneuver.

• Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Price Basis Clarification:

  • The price is measured in nominal dollars and is not inflation adjusted.