Will there be an oil spill of more than 10 000 tonnes as given on the wikipedia list of oil spills at the end of april 2026 as estimated as the maximum potential amount in the listing, and occurring between midnight 31. December 2024 and midnight 31. December 2025?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_spills
Background
Oil spills remain a significant environmental concern, with several major incidents occurring each decade. According to NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration, while the frequency of large oil spills has decreased since the 1970s due to improved safety measures and regulations, significant spills still occur. The Wikipedia list of oil spills serves as the authoritative source for this market and includes comprehensive data on major spills worldwide.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the Wikipedia list of oil spills (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_spills) as it appears at the end of April 2026. To resolve YES:
The spill must have occurred between December 31, 2024 (midnight) and December 31, 2025 (midnight)
The estimated maximum potential amount listed must exceed 10,000 tonnes
The spill must be listed in the Wikipedia article as of end of April 2026
Considerations
The Wikipedia article may be updated after a spill occurs, and the estimated amount of oil spilled might be revised over time
Some spills may not be immediately detected or reported, which is why the resolution date is set to April 2026 to allow time for documentation
Historical data shows that spills of this magnitude are relatively rare but do occur every few years
The market considers the maximum potential amount listed, not necessarily the final confirmed amount
Both offshore and onshore spills that affect waterways are eligible for consideration
Clarification: Oceans are bodies of water
Committment: Market maker will not trade on it
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Spill Start Date Clarification:
Only spills that begin after December 31, 2024 (midnight) are eligible. Spills that started before this time, even if they later reach or exceed 10,000 tonnes, do not qualify.
Qualification Based on Updated Estimates:
If a spill that occurs within the period (i.e. before December 31, 2025 midnight) only later exceeds 10,000 tonnes, it will still count.
1,000@JussiVilleHeiskanen looking at the wikipedia page now. It says the Taylor oil spill is ongoing. If the continued spillage since the beginning of your start date and resolution date supercedes 10,000 tonnes will that count for YES? or does the beginning of an oil spill have to have started after your start date?
i assume the latter, but just in case, thought I should ask
@No_uh yes having occurred after the early date doesn't include spills that had already started before. Ones that occur before the end date but only qualify later for the amount do however count.