If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
4
270Ṁ1422026
7%
Less than 15 states
18%
15-19
36%
20-24
23%
25-29
8%
30-34
8%
At least 35 states
Resolves according to this list of states and their abortion restrictions from Planned Parenthood. States with either red "Total ban on abortion" or yellow "severely" or "further" restricts abortion labels count.
If Trump doesn't become President, this market resolves N/A.
When this market was made, 21 states restricted abortion.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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