Bet on Love is a new dating show Manifold is helping to host, with several contestants competing for the opportunity to date Aella. Manifold will participate by holding prediction markets on whether the contestants involved will stay or be rejected by Aella in their rounds.
Resolves according to Manifold's personal judgement, or to a council of moderators if Manifold doesn't intervene in this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 5 | Ṁ207 |
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@Wott I don't think it was a good business idea haha. It was a crazy idea. It was fun. It didn't end up promoting Manifold Love like at all. We got one odd reference IIRC.
I think I'll still vote NO on it being a "good" idea, if my vote still counts.
@Wott My take on Bet on Love one year out is that it was a huge creative success but only middling from a business perspective. I estimated at the time that the show created 400 new counterfactual signups day-of, which is not nothing but also not groundbreaking.
In general, I think the show deserved more. The soundtrack alone is legitimately better than many Broadway musicals (listen to it on Spotify!).
The other aspect of producing this show that people don't understand is that it was relatively cheap. It required only a few months of part-time work on my end with minimal effort from the rest of the team (the Classics Dept did all the heavy lifting and were an absolute pleasure to work with). Other Manifold initiatives like implementing private groups easily cost us 2-3x more both in terms of time as well as money with much less to show for themselves. And don't get me started on manifold.love...
@Wott At the time when we made bet on love we were more interested in taking longshots, and from what I remember it was a good idea as any that we had at the time. Also the show itself was SO dang funny and entertaining.
@Metastable it has not been 1 year since bet on love. resolving this ping, but can ping mods again once it's been >1 year
I propose to a resolve to a vote of us three cofounders (@JamesGrugett, @Austin, me), who are conveniently an odd number.