Will A top 100 chess Grandmaster be proven to be cheating this year?
Dec 31

Manifestos written by gm's don't count as proof 😉. An allegation must be corroborated by some reputable institution. The player must be proven to have cheated in 2024 or for heretofore unseen proof be provided resulting in the players ban.

Top 100 otb fide classical rating rather than online rating will be used to resolve this market.

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predicts NO

I assume we are also talking about OTB fide classical ratings for the top 100 and this would need to be caught cheating in an OTB event not online/rapid/blitz etc.

Also in a hypothetical situation where someone delibrately cheated publicly (for example Hikaru/Kramnik/Fabi/Nepo making a video like "This is what it look like if a super GM cheated") would that be counted?

predicts NO

@nicwest06d6 I would not consider your hypothetical to be sufficient to resolve the Market. Cheating for the purposes of a joke or yt video do not count.

also is it someone in the top ten now (as in what Fabi alluded to in his interview) regardless of where they are currently ranked at the time they are caught. or do they have to still be in the top 10 at the time that they are caught cheating?

predicts NO

@nicwest06d6 someone who is in the 100 currently, or was during their time cheating.

to be clear, it isn't enough that it's revealed they cheated in previous years? they must be shown to have cheated within 2024?

predicts NO

@Bayesian must be within 2024

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