Coming into the 2024 election, what will the discourse on A.I. look like ?
Coming into the 2024 election, what will the discourse on A.I. look like ?
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A.I will not become a political issue.
A.I will become heavily politicized, Republicans will be in favor of increased regulations, will be concerned about X risk etc.
A.I will become heavily politicized, Democrats will be in favor of increased regulations, will be concerned about X risk etc.
A.I will become heavily politicized, But division will occur across a different axis of politics.
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I don't think politicians will get involved but it will be a major story as more deepfakes happen.
Given yesterday’s discovery / apprehension / indictment of Life Corp and Walter Monk in TX by NH’s AG I can see deep-fake audio robocalls—at least— emerging suddenly in the media’s and public consciousness. (Moreso had it been df of Trump ).
This on top of the nonconsensual fake-videos on X which Taylor Swift has so far tacitly ignored… she has so much more important stuff going on in her life. But it’s a powder keg
If Twitter/X is a good metric, I don't really see tweets about AI routinely reaching >50k likes this year like some other issues do. Unless it's an unusually bad take involving Midjourney or something like that.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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