Resolves YES if Matt Levine in the next two weeks mentions publicly (through his newsletter or on a social media account) that he has been informed that he is encouraged to insider trade on Manifold.

Otherwise NO

Relates to this section in his newsletter (bolding mine):

Manifold Markets is a sort-of-play-money prediction market that allows people to propose questions and bet on the answers. For instance, here is a market on “Why was Sam Altman fired” with dozens of proposed answers. One proposed answer is “hidden, poorly internally labeled ‘fiat@’ account,” which is a pretty good joke. I liked it enough that, this weekend, I linked to it on Threads. This apparently prompted a reader to email me to point out that there are several Matt Levine-related markets on Manifold, including “Will Matt Levine link to Manifold by 2024,” which “Resolves to YES if Manifold Markets is referenced or linked to by Matt Levine in his Money Stuff newsletter, before the end of next year.” The odds when I looked yesterday were about 40%. The odds at 11:30 a.m. today were 84%. The odds when I publish this will, of course, be 100%. Did I insider trade on this market? No. Was I tempted? For pedagogical and comedic purposes, I mean, not to win play money? A little.