Will a new solar cell technology with at least 30% efficiency be commercially available before the end of 2024?
8
170Ṁ281
Jan 31
13%
chance

Details:

1. Definition of "New Solar Cell Technology": This refers to a technology that has not been commercially available before 2023. It should be a distinct advancement in solar cell technology, not just a marginal improvement of existing technologies.

2. Efficiency Criteria: The technology must demonstrate a minimum efficiency of 30%. Efficiency is defined as the percentage of sunlight converted into usable electricity under standard testing conditions.

3. Commercial Availability: The technology must be available for purchase by consumers or businesses. Prototypes or lab-scale demonstrations do not qualify. The technology should be scalable and not limited to niche applications.

4. Verification Sources: Acceptable sources for verification include reputable industry publications, announcements from credible solar technology companies, or confirmation from independent renewable energy organizations.

Resolution Criteria:

The question will resolve as "Yes" if, by December 31, 2024, there is credible evidence that a new solar cell technology meeting the above criteria is commercially available. It will resolve as "No" if no such technology is available by this date.

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