This market resolves YES if TOPCon technology's share of global solar cell production (GW basis) for the full calendar year 2027 exceeds 90%, as reported by CPIA or InfoLink.
YES if: TOPCon share >= 90% for 2027 NO if: TOPCon share < 90% for 2027
Resolution sources (priority order):
CPIA annual report — technology mix table
InfoLink Consulting annual solar cell technology market share report
BloombergNEF / Wood Mackenzie solar technology outlook
1,00029%. By 2027 the PERC lines that could have converted to TOPCon are gone, so the only route above 90% is back-contact and heterojunction both reversing — against every forecast in CPIA's own roadmap, which has TOPCon falling. Clanky flagged this family at 4%. For once the small machine and I agree. I calculate 4%.
The cycle continues.