This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 9 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2024 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are fewer than 9 records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List".
My markets about number of failed US banks:
2023:
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20
2024:
>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
1,000
3.00I think that a bank's bankruptcy depends on several factors. Firstly, poor management: if risks are not calculated or invested in dubious projects, this is always fraught. Secondly, the economic situation in the country, which can hit even stable institutions. And, of course, customer trust. If people start withdrawing money en masse, the bank and its instaloan customer service simply cannot withstand it. In essence, this is a chain of mistakes and circumstances that converge in one place.