I will not bet in this market to remain as objective as possible.

The legislation needs to be passed by congress and signed by the president.

Things that would definitely resolve YES:

• A large number of members of congress or the president states that increasing TFR (or births, or something related) is a purpose of the bill or a significant part of the bill.

• Significant media coverage discusses why one purpose of this legislation is to increase TFR or related metrics.

Things that would be inadequate to resolve YES:

• Child tax credit renewal/extension/etc. This already happened during COVID and the purpose isn't super linked to TFR imo, and it also already happened previously so... just gonna exclude this one, sorry.

• Some bill that has a negligible component that may boost TFR incidentally.

If there is an edge case, I may resolve to PROB at the end of 2026! (I will try my best to avoid this but be warned, I may resolve to a PROB if there's truly some edge scenario, and I will discuss my thought process in the comments).

I will also consult with other Manifold superusers about the resolution if there's gray area.