@FredBush have you checked in with your dad at the post office? I bet he would know what’s up

I bought high then it went low but I didn't sell. I think I forgot to buy low.

Did she already get an email?

@TonyBaloney she has gotten the email saying “there might be a shutdown in which case…” but not the “there is a shutdown so do…” email yet

I just read the description and I thought it was really funny.

@Eliza it’s actually kind of mystifying to me that there are so many shutdown markets and none of them have criteria that actually capture “is there actually a damn shutdown and not just endless endless endless gray area”

@bens I mean, isnt there just an endless grey area? Isnt that reality? I generally have to work during shutdowns and I’m not really sure that they actually affect me all that much tbh. I expect zero change from this one for me. My guess is that your gf will receive a shutdown email and instructions loaded with equivocation and caveats. She might be told to leave work early, but then told by her supervisor to stay if she’s working on something important. And everything is important. And then Tuesday is normal.

@TonyBaloney ya I mean, I’m trying to capture if the admin is like “we expect funding imminently so don’t bother shutting down for 1 day” or if they’re like “we don’t know yet so let’s shut down”

@bens No, I get it. I’m just saying I could see everyone trying to split the difference. I’m pretty confident her work will be affected in some way, but not as much as snow days. On a side note, what percentage of binary markets on Manifold resolve in a way where it’s clear the intent behind the market wasn’t totally captured?

Help me traders

@bens Sorry I have no idea. I looked in my gut, nothing there. I don't even know which way to ride the volatility waves.

It might be related to "my only source of information on this subject is Manifold"

@bens the invisible hand of the market says “probably lol who knows lmao”

@JohnSmithb9be interesting how it’s barely shifted since I posted this.

lol