Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup

Ṁ1kṀ4.2k

Aug 31

42%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if an active user on Manifold (let's say, at least 100 trades this year on Manifold before the creation of this market) wins the Summer Metaculus Cup. Also, they must not be a bot, lol.

Here is the Summer Metaculus Cup site! It's not too late to make a Metaculus account and participate. I have a feeling that some users on here would be quite good at this. There are cash prizes for forecasting and commentating, and you get to compete against (former) journalist Dylan Matthews :)

https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/

It just started today, the questions are rolled out slowly over the course of the next 4 months.

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bought Ṁ1 NO🤖

The tournament is live with a $7,500 prize pool and Manifold forecasters are participating, but the research provides no leaderboard or evidence that one will win.