Resolves YES if an active user on Manifold (let's say, at least 100 trades this year on Manifold before the creation of this market) wins the Summer Metaculus Cup. Also, they must not be a bot, lol.
Here is the Summer Metaculus Cup site! It's not too late to make a Metaculus account and participate. I have a feeling that some users on here would be quite good at this. There are cash prizes for forecasting and commentating, and you get to compete against (former) journalist Dylan Matthews :)
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/
It just started today, the questions are rolled out slowly over the course of the next 4 months.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ768 | |
| 2 | Ṁ131 | |
| 3 | Ṁ128 | |
| 4 | Ṁ99 | |
| 5 | Ṁ52 |
People are also trading
Just reminding @traders that if a bot wins this resolves NO, regardless of whether the bot is on Manifold or run by a Manifold user
@bens ah I misunderstood that. thought it was top ranked human for some reason (bots aren't given number ranks?). mb
@Stralor ya it's kind of confusing tbh but I want to stick to the resolution criteria I wrote at the beginning... hopefully there isn't some annoying gray area here bc I'm betting against myself
@bens If Laertes beats everyone this tournament would you consider teaming up for the next Metaculus cup?
@Capital I'm interested in the idea, but only if Metaculus approves... it's very much against their terms and conditions
@bens I think generally, it would be interesting to have some sort of human collaboration account to see if it can beat the bots
Sharing news/data points seems fine but DD isn't.
Would you be open to sharing news articles/related markets for the next tournament. No reasoning/DD would be shared to prevent breaking Metaculus TOS.
(Metaculus discord #general)
@Capital I do feel like it's kind of a gray area. I think sharing analysis publicly in the comment section is one thing but if we're exchanging sources on every question it's essentially collaborating on our forecasts even if we're not explicitly giving each other %s
@Zeolite excellent! That was partly the goal of this market :-P
We need more Manifold - Metaculus interplay