Resolves YES if an active user on Manifold (let's say, at least 100 trades this year on Manifold before the creation of this market) wins the Summer Metaculus Cup. Also, they must not be a bot, lol.

Here is the Summer Metaculus Cup site! It's not too late to make a Metaculus account and participate. I have a feeling that some users on here would be quite good at this. There are cash prizes for forecasting and commentating, and you get to compete against (former) journalist Dylan Matthews :)

https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/

It just started today, the questions are rolled out slowly over the course of the next 4 months.