Saw Ben S's market on "Will a Manifolder win the summer cup" and wanted to make a similar market but for myself.
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-a-manifolder-win-the-summer-me
I will be competing in this tournament, and my final ranking will be the number here.
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/
My account is "Capital": https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/279247/
I'm a relatively new forecaster starting in December 2025, however had a great run in Bridgewater being 5th place out of 3k+.
I will have a stronger incentive to compete in this tournament due to this market.
Note: This is my second manifold.markets account, I have another account that's virtually broke but has over 100 trades in the past year.
Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bots do not count toward the ranking calculation.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ127 | |
| 2 | Ṁ91 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 |
People are also trading
Yes you are, questions haven't been resolved yet.
There's still 14 questions out of 58 left to resolve meaning they are not counted in the scoring yet. These questions are high value as well as they're been open since tournament start.
Click "resolving soon".
Traders, take note that I took an extremely contrarian position on the Ethiopian election question. My score will heavily be based on the result of this question.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43455/of-seats-won-by-prosperity-in-2026-ethiopian-election/
First question resolved.
Currently 10th.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43311/verdict-in-musk-v-altman-et-al/
Forgot to add but bots don't count. By default they're already off the leaderboard placement though.