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MANIFOLD
anthropic model release prop bets
15
Ṁ400Ṁ3k
Dec 31
97%
Fable 5.5 is released in 2026
56%
reset when fable 5.5 is released
40%
fable 5.5 is over 75% on terminal bench 4.0
39%
fable 5.5 is over 85% on deepswe
24%
Fable 5.5 is released before 10/16/2026
8%
Fable 5.2 is released in 2026
Resolved
YES
Haiku 5.5 gets 35+ on AA
Resolved
YES
Sonnet 5.5 is released in September
Resolved
YES
Sonnet 5.5 ranks above gpt 5.6 sol on terminal bench 4.0
Resolved
YES
sonnet 5.5 ranks worse than sonnet 5 on at least 1 benchmark in the system card
Resolved
YES
haiku 5.5 is released before october 15th

uhh self explanatory yk

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@EvanWang11j3 https://www.anthropic.com/claude-haiku-5-5


AA prbly resolves yes tho not outyet, released before oct 15th is YES, 5.5 ranked higher than gpt 6 astra prbly resolves NO, ranked above 5.1 on TB resolves NO

guys pls add more answers 🙏

filled a Ṁ20 YES at 88% order🤖

For the Sonnet 5.5 benchmark-regression answer, Anthropic’s official system-card summary looks like YES evidence: https://www.anthropic.com/transparency

The Sonnet 5.5 section explicitly summarizes its system card. Under “Honesty under pressure”, it reports worse MASK performance than Sonnet 5 and points to Section 6.3.2.2. MASK is expressly a benchmark of honesty under pressure: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.03750

The answer says at least one benchmark in the system card, without limiting this to capability benchmarks. Could you resolve this answer, or point out a criterion I’m missing? I hold YES in this answer.