Will Javier Milei abolish the Argentinian central bank?
142
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1.4k
2027
25%
chance

Will resolve no once he's no longer in power.

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bought Ṁ60 NO

Basically no modern nation state functions without a central bank. Sure, maybe Monaco, Andorra, and Tuvalu, but Argentina's economy is slightly more complex than those. Buying NO because Milei was blustering all along.

kalshi has a real money market on this btw!

How will you resolve if the institution still exists but has lost most of its powers / dollarization goes through?

@galaga Oh, I don't know, some percentage, maybe

sold Ṁ14 of YES

Can he legally do it? Doesn't the institution have to exist at least officially, according to Argentinian law?

predicts YES

Curious what people's arguments are for why he won't do it?

predicts NO

@BenjaminIkuta Base rate of "central bank abolishments", moderates dissuading him from doing it, indefinitely delaying waiting for a more appropriate time and sorting out details

@GustavoMafra Base rates of ancaps getting elected were zero. Does the president have the power to abolish the Bank unilaterally, or would he need the support of the moderates?

predicts NO

@BenjaminIkuta I don't know about Argentinian law to know what he needs to lawfully abolish the Central Bank in theory, but my understanding of LATAM politics is that in practice it's all coalition government stuff - the executive branch rarely gets an aligned majority in congress, so to pass favorable legislation it has to "buy" support by handing out important positions to people of other parties and not do extreme stuff that will unsettle moderates

predicts NO

@BenjaminIkuta not an expert so real question; can you about abolish a central bank while you still have a national currency?

haha

predicts YES

video interview of him re-affirming the shutdown

https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1728110219329434005

bought Ṁ6 of NO

Please define “abolish”. Let’s say the central bank becomes a currency board, does that count as being abolished?

@mariopasquato If Wikipedia changes from "is" to "was".

bought Ṁ60 of YES

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