Basically no modern nation state functions without a central bank. Sure, maybe Monaco, Andorra, and Tuvalu, but Argentina's economy is slightly more complex than those. Buying NO because Milei was blustering all along.

kalshi has a real money market on this btw!

How will you resolve if the institution still exists but has lost most of its powers / dollarization goes through?

@galaga Oh, I don't know, some percentage, maybe

Can he legally do it? Doesn't the institution have to exist at least officially, according to Argentinian law?

Curious what people's arguments are for why he won't do it?

@BenjaminIkuta Base rate of "central bank abolishments", moderates dissuading him from doing it, indefinitely delaying waiting for a more appropriate time and sorting out details

@GustavoMafra Base rates of ancaps getting elected were zero. Does the president have the power to abolish the Bank unilaterally, or would he need the support of the moderates?

@BenjaminIkuta I don't know about Argentinian law to know what he needs to lawfully abolish the Central Bank in theory, but my understanding of LATAM politics is that in practice it's all coalition government stuff - the executive branch rarely gets an aligned majority in congress, so to pass favorable legislation it has to "buy" support by handing out important positions to people of other parties and not do extreme stuff that will unsettle moderates

@BenjaminIkuta not an expert so real question; can you about abolish a central bank while you still have a national currency?

haha

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1728096533906665566

video interview of him re-affirming the shutdown

https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1728110219329434005

Please define “abolish”. Let’s say the central bank becomes a currency board, does that count as being abolished?

@mariopasquato If Wikipedia changes from "is" to "was".

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/if-javier-milei-abolishes-the-centr?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1728113212187385995 looking like it