Will a successor to GPT-3 (e.g. GPT-4) be announced in 2022?

closes Jan 1, 2023

11%

chance

Resolves YES if OpenAI announces GPT-4 in 2022. Also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a clear successor to GPT-3 that resembles the step change in capabilities from GPT-2 to GPT-3, but is not named GPT-4.

Sort by:

Victor Levoso

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Does chatgpt count?.

It seems better at some tasks, though it's hard to tell how much, and it might actually be using diferent models depending on context.

I think there is still going to be a "gpt4" model but that might take longer.

Vadim

is predicting YES at 10%

OpenAI says ChatGPT was fine-tuned from a model in the "GPT3.5" series. I'd say it doesn't count.

Ben

is predicting YES at 10%

@wadimiusz The announcement email I got from OpenAI had the subject "New GPT-3 model: text-davinci-003", so I'd say it doesn't count.

is predicting NO at 10%

@VictorLevoso btw, chatgpt is so bad lol. I'm not impressed. it's significantly worse than t-d-3

Victor Levoso

is predicting YES at 11%

@bcongdon That's a different model that released arround the same time.

I think it doesn't count anyway for the reason vadim mentions.

Ben

is predicting YES at 66%

Claims: https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1544416581551136768 (FWIW, I won't resolve unless there's a marketing *announcement* by OpenAI, regardless of the capabilities of the GPT-* API)

ersatz

is predicting NO at 27%

@bcongdon text-davinci-002 isn't GPT-4 at all

Edward Kmett

@bcongdon text-davinci-003 was announced last night. they are basically viewed as just incremental GPT-3 variants though.