Will a successor to GPT-3 (e.g. GPT-4) be announced in 2022?
11%
chance
Resolves YES if OpenAI announces GPT-4 in 2022. Also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a clear successor to GPT-3 that resembles the step change in capabilities from GPT-2 to GPT-3, but is not named GPT-4.
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VictorLevoso avatar
Victor Levoso
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Does chatgpt count?.

It seems better at some tasks, though it's hard to tell how much, and it might actually be using diferent models depending on context.

I think there is still going to be a "gpt4" model but that might take longer.

wadimiusz avatar
Vadim
is predicting YES at 10%

OpenAI says ChatGPT was fine-tuned from a model in the "GPT3.5" series. I'd say it doesn't count.

bcongdon avatar
Ben
is predicting YES at 10%

@wadimiusz The announcement email I got from OpenAI had the subject "New GPT-3 model: text-davinci-003", so I'd say it doesn't count.

L avatar
L
is predicting NO at 10%

@VictorLevoso btw, chatgpt is so bad lol. I'm not impressed. it's significantly worse than t-d-3

VictorLevoso avatar
Victor Levoso
is predicting YES at 11%

@bcongdon That's a different model that released arround the same time.

I think it doesn't count anyway for the reason vadim mentions.

bcongdon avatar
Ben
is predicting YES at 66%
Claims: https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1544416581551136768 (FWIW, I won't resolve unless there's a marketing *announcement* by OpenAI, regardless of the capabilities of the GPT-* API)
ersatz avatar
ersatz
is predicting NO at 27%

@bcongdon text-davinci-002 isn't GPT-4 at all

EdwardKmett avatar

@bcongdon text-davinci-003 was announced last night. they are basically viewed as just incremental GPT-3 variants though.