Will a successor to GPT-3 (e.g. GPT-4) be announced in 2022?

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resolved Jan 2

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Resolves YES if OpenAI announces GPT-4 in 2022. Also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a clear successor to GPT-3 that resembles the step change in capabilities from GPT-2 to GPT-3, but is not named GPT-4.

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bought Ṁ297 of NO

@bcongdon This looks like it can clearly resolve NO based on the internal and external branding of text-davinci-XXX as a refinement of GPT-3 and ChatGPT as still being "GPT 3.5."

bought Ṁ10 of YES

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1607220186146541568

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@FranklinBaldo I miss read this tweet

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Does chatgpt count?.

It seems better at some tasks, though it's hard to tell how much, and it might actually be using diferent models depending on context.

I think there is still going to be a "gpt4" model but that might take longer.

predicted YES

OpenAI says ChatGPT was fine-tuned from a model in the "GPT3.5" series. I'd say it doesn't count.

predicted YES

@wadimiusz The announcement email I got from OpenAI had the subject "New GPT-3 model: text-davinci-003", so I'd say it doesn't count.

predicted NO

@VictorLevoso btw, chatgpt is so bad lol. I'm not impressed. it's significantly worse than t-d-3

predicted YES

@bcongdon That's a different model that released arround the same time.

I think it doesn't count anyway for the reason vadim mentions.

predicted YES

Claims: https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1544416581551136768 (FWIW, I won't resolve unless there's a marketing *announcement* by OpenAI, regardless of the capabilities of the GPT-* API)