Poland's no-fly zone violated by Russia?

Following the drone incursion of Sep 9-10,2025 Poland has declared a no-fly zone along its eastern border until Dec 12, 2025

Resolves YES if, before 23:59 CET on December 31, 2025, Poland’s Operational Command (Dowództwo Operacyjne RSZ) or the Polish Ministry of National Defence publicly confirms that a Russian state‑controlled aerial vehicle (manned aircraft, UAV/drone, cruise or ballistic missile, or guided munition) entered Polish airspace within the “no‑fly”/air‑traffic‑restriction zone established over eastern Poland following the 9–10 Sep 2025 incursion, while that zone (or its successor covering the same eastern‑border area) is active. Primary sources to check: DO RSZ on X and MoD releases. If no Polish official confirmation is issued, YES may also resolve on the basis of corroboration by at least two of Reuters/AP/AFP/BBC citing Polish authorities. Links: https://x.com/DowOperSZ, https://www.gov.pl/web/obrona-narodowa, https://www.reuters.com, https://apnews.com. (pap.pl)
Resolves NO if no such confirmed violation occurs by the deadline.
Exclusions/edge cases: debris found without attribution does not count; incursions attributed to non‑Russian actors (e.g., Belarusian or “unknown”) do not count unless Polish authorities attribute them to Russia; subsequent official retraction within 72 hours nullifies a prior claim for resolution.

On the night of Sep 9–10, 2025, Poland reported an “unprecedented” series of Russian drone incursions, shot down several drones, temporarily closed multiple airports, and invoked NATO Article 4. Poland then imposed air‑traffic restrictions in its eastern region. (reuters.com)

The “no‑fly” posture is implemented via temporary airspace restrictions/NOTAMs that can expand/contract; verification typically comes first from DO RSZ posts and MoD communiqués, with wire services echoing them. (pap.pl)
Attribution can be contested; this market uses Polish official attribution (or wire reports citing it) to avoid ambiguity. (reuters.com)
Traders can monitor Polish airspace restrictions and military aviation advisories via PANSA/AIP and Polish aviation outlets during heightened alerts. (pansa.pl)

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