how’s this going @barak?

so you want users to pay for your gadgets? what if you never reach 400k? will we get refunds?

If Manifold does this, you should be able to bet the X = 1 option successfully up to 100%, guaranteeing that Apple will sell at least 1 unit of their Vision Pro.

also, where are manifold offices?

@AxelJacobsen The answer can be found in the comments of /Haws/will-manifold-receive-a-lump-of-coa

Meta-commentary, I think Dominant Assurance Contracts may fit well here. I see many markets that follow this template: "Will X occur", essentially advertising X and incentivizing people to participate in X. But, Dominant assurance contracts are a bit cleaner. It's off of manifold's focus, but I wonder if there's another way to implement it with already existing market types?

TL;DR the contract creator sets a funding threshold and sets aside some quantity of "refund money". If the donations surpass the threshold, the contract creator gets the funding and keeps the refund. If the donations do not surpass the threshold, the donators split the refund money.

Good reading:

- Concise, Chat-GPT explanation https://chat.openai.com/share/7914aace-9b75-4d4d-9295-dda8d71450cd
- Long and very high quality explanation https://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf

Let's make a Manifold Apple Vision Pro headset happen! 😍

I commit to sending 1k mana for each user who comments under this comment that they will do the same, up to 5k total (= 5 users).

isn’t this a product which is supposed to be fit to your specific face?

@mattyb ngl I forgot about that part... i wonder how required that is? Will leave this market up

@barak i got a market for that 😊

“Store visit mandatory to get a unit (no opt-out from fitting etc)”