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Not sure if dropped or what

@deagol idk if it was in the box but https://x.com/plainrocktweets/status/1753561680163004762?s=20

@mattyb that looks so staged

@deagol the box sounds empty. I think you’re the closest to this being a YES. Apparently the guy is a drop test person

@deagol love a 2nd take, but 6:14 should Resolve YES, right https://youtu.be/Q4aJYb8CNDs?si=Cu1CZ2VDAduOHJb7

@mattyb @deagol and he’s the report: https://9to5mac.com/2024/02/02/apple-vision-pro-drop-test/

@deagol I called it. It seemed clear to me with the write up.

This closes tonight at midnight PST and I’m likely going to leave this closed and unresolved for a day or so for the ones which are based on user reports / journalism.

I will also very much appreciate help sleuthing on the internets 🧑🏻‍💻

@mattyb @traders for the final two open ones (sleeping outside & sold out store) I’ve yet to see any compelling evidence of either. I’ll do a more thorough search tonight, and if I can’t find anything else, I’ll Resolve them NO.

If you’d like them to Resolve YES I’d appreciate help scouring the internet. Thanks!

@mattyb I saw this, but just looks like a long early line not necessarily a camping situation?

https://www.reddit.com/r/VisionPro/s/E9ppXJ9X2K

@MichaelCox yea, I don’t see anyone sleeping here. Deagol laid out some good resolution criteria here. I’m looking for #1 and #2, so some kind of photo with people in chairs + blankets, or a tent.

@mattyb Final verdits:

“sold out”

The only articles I can find here are talking about online sales, not in-store sales, and all the papers were written week(s) out:

• https://nypost.com/2024/01/30/business/apple-sells-out-of-vision-pro-headsets-after-getting-200k-pre-orders/amp/

• https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2024/01/19/apple-vision-pro-sold-out-at-least-for-pre-order/amp/

• https://mashable.com/article/apple-vision-pro-sold-out

I’m really not seeing much on social media around this either.

Resolves NO.

“sleeping outside”

deagol gave us fairly specific criteria here (which I agree with). Really we’re missing the bit with the sleeping. I’d accept a folding chair with blankets, or a tent, as a situation where someone was more than likely intending to sleep, but haven’t found one yet.

Plenty of evidence of early am queues and filled stores, but nothing around people sleeping outside to get one.

Resolves NO

about the Apple Vision Pro

This is not about the Vision Pro

@mattyb 🤷 on the day of the release of what is probably the most anticipated VR/AR device ever a company named Meta staking its future on competing with it announced a dividend driving its' stock price up 20% for one of the largest 1 day market cap swings ever. If you were just looking at the charts and hadn't read the news today you would probably think the vision pro was a major flop. That's how I see it as related but your market your call 🤷

@alexlitz I see, that’s fairly compelling, but I’m worried this market is also a bit subjective. The stock moved up for likely a myriad of reasons, and maybe hype in AR/VR is one. I’m already seeing the following articles claiming to have a reason for the jump, mainly crediting earnings and stock buybacks:

• Meta Stock Rockets To New Highs On 'Monumental' Quarterly Earnings, Dividend Plan

• Meta surges with record $196 billion gain in stock market value

• Meta Platforms Stock Finishes at a Record High

I think this would already likely Resolve NO at time of posting.

@alexlitz this is unclear. Is this a single store selling out, or every Apple store selling out.

@mattyb Clarified phrasing.

@alexlitz thanks, this is clear.

a single point

People were lining up in NYC after the store closed at 10p last night

https://www.reddit.com/r/VisionPro/comments/1agu67g/stopped_by_after_work_just_to_see_if_there_was/

and I spotted this in another thread but no photo/video

@shankypanky if it’s coming from a single person, I’m gonna need to see some photos + timestamps (or photos with clear vision pro signage / newspaper…etc.)

from the same store about Tim Cook arriving

@shankypanky “lining up ahead” is not sleeping outside.

Still waiting for photographic / 3rd party reporting

@shankypanky obviously people were there at 8 am and earlier, but did they sleep there overnight, as the question requires? People hang around that store at all hours since it’s normally open 24/7, but it was closed last night to prepare for the launch and opened at 8 am. I doubt anyone slept outside to reserve a walk-in unit, but don’t doubt some hung around there early this morning.

@deagol yeah I got that I'm keeping an eye out and just sharing the stuff I see. as I understand the Apple Store has discouraged overnight stays for some time so I'm still trying to understand if it's even possible tbh.

@shankypanky “back in my day”

@mattyb @shankypanky to be clear about my expectations for this to be YES:

The question states “People will sleep outside of an Apple store to get it” which requires three things:

1. That they are there, outside any Apple Store on the night/day in question (starting midnight today). This likely happened.

2. That they actually sleep. Perhaps hard to prove someone’s sleeping but I would accept pics of a tent or a foldable chair with someone seated with some signs of planning, a blanket, coffee mug, etc. This may have happened.

3. That they actually got one of the few coveted walk-in AVP units. Note those that have a reserved pre-order for pick-up do not need to camp out or wait in line, their unit will be there at their slotted time. Only walk-ins might need to wait in line and might get a few first-come-first-served units. A pic of them with their non-pre-order purchase would be nice, otherwise not sure how to make sure it’s real. People sleeping outside just to play along with the hype and get some retweets, but only getting a demo and walking out empty-handed wouldn’t count imo, but I know it’s a high bar to ask for pics of it all.

@deagol I don't think people need to actually be able to buy a Vision Pro for this to resolve? there are posts about people waiting overnight to be able to get a slot with a demo unit, for example. or, there's no way of telling when you line up if there will be overstock/walk in purchases available (not all stores are guaranteed to have non-preorder units) - many people line up just for the chance. I think the third point is excessive.

@shankypanky just going by the question text, literally says “to get it”

@deagol

1. Agreed

2. Agreed

3. Agreed with @shankypanky. I was in London and waited outside the British Museum for 3hours in the rain to get in. I never got in (that day, they had online tickets for the next day). If I had a market that said “I’ll wait in line for hours to get into a museum”, I’d resolve that YES. I waited for hours and I was waiting to get into a museum. “To get into a museum” or “to get it” is the point of the waiting, not necessarily the outcome.

@deagol "to get it" is why they're lining up. I go to the store "to get" things often and the product I want being sold out doesn't mean I didn't go with the intention. this is a massive launch day. if people camped, it's for the hope that they can "get it," knowing they may not. just like people who have waited outside for a day or more for a video game console.

@shankypanky hey i said that!

@mattyb yes, agreed what counts is their intention “to get it”. So, if they camped out for a demo or to get retweets, with no intention of buying one, that should be a NO? “to get into a museum” is quite a different commitment than “to get it” (the product, a $3500 purchase).

@deagol yea, if there’s a video of someone genuinely mad because they slept overnight to get it, but couldn’t. I guess we’ll need to judge the honesty of the video 🤷🏻‍♂️ otherwise, I think we’re agreed on the criteria