New conditional market:

Wwill Aoc endorse saikat?

@Jack1 she won't. She already had her shot

@barak if he makes the runoff, she might. Maybe she likes Connie and saikat and will endorse whoever does best

if you get 3rd place in the primary you can't win the election

https://manifold.markets/barak/who-will-be-the-2nd-place-finisher

Why do we think Saikat has dropped so much in the last few weeks?

@barak AOC not really acknowledging him?

@Jack1 oh right the whole he was fired and she refuses to endorse him thing

It seems to me saikat would be one of the best house members if elected. He actually wants to fight

@Jack1 but Scott Wiener has a better actual track record in the job of legislator, including how to legislate on AI

My understanding is that this is an important story that could significantly hurt Saikat Chakrabarti's run for the seat.

Connie Chan should be a new option here https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/08/politics/nancy-pelosi-retirement-candidates-replace

@MikeChenSF I just added Connie Chan as an option ... anyone has permissions to add options on this market

@barak anyone does, but due to the high liquidity (which is great!) adding a new option is 10k and many users might not be willing to pay that =)

Christine Pelosi will not run for this seat, and is instead planning to run for the State Senate.

What just happened?

Scott Weiner has announced his campaign

https://bsky.app/profile/scottwiener.bsky.social/post/3m3s54mmgyk27

Whoa this market is insanely liquid

Does prop 50 redistricting affect this market at all? The 11th district is (mostly?) unchanged, so I'd think no, but want to be sure.

@robm good question, it looks pretty unchanged to me: https://selc.senate.ca.gov/proposed-congressional-map (new) vs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_11th_congressional_district#/media/File:California's_11th_congressional_district_(since_2023)_(new_version).svg (current), so Prop 50 won't affect this market.

I'll interpret "expires before the next redisticting cycle" to mean "regular redistricting cycle, ie the one starting after the 2030 census"

Proposed Congressional Map | Senate Elections and Constitutional Amendments Committee

Surprised Shadid Buttar isn’t an option, he’s ran for

the seat a few times and did decent

https://sfstandard.com/2024/08/30/christine-pelosi-scott-wiener-shadow-campaign/