US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market

Question

All options assume Scott Wiener advances to the general election -- market resolves N/A if not.

For example, if the primary result ends up as Connie Chan + Scott Wiener, then we know the Saikat options will resolve No, and after the final result one of the remaining options will resolve Yes.

Market closes based on official results https://www.sf.gov/departments--department-elections.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Connie Chan advances; Scott Wiener wins, followed by Connie Chan advances; Connie Chan wins and Saikat Chakrabarti advances; Scott Wiener wins are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Aug 9, 2026).